Over 300 contributions (orals and posters), fostering high-quality exchanges between leading ocean and atmospheric scientists, service providers, industry representatives, and users of Ocean data.
Addressing Critical Ocean Prediction Challenges Experts focused on essential areas including coastal and regional ocean prediction, polar ocean and sea ice dynamics, and bridging global with regional scale predictions. Coastal regions face unique challenges due to complex interactions among currents, waves, and sediment transport. This complexity requires sustained observation networks and innovative approaches like multi scale modelling to improve accuracy. Ensemble forecasting has become crucial for improving prediction accuracy and providing actionable uncertainty information. New satellite data, such as SWOT observations of ocean circulation and improved use of sea ice thickness measurements, are contributing to more precise forecasts. However, in situ observations remain fundamental to ocean prediction, with ongoing challenges in expanding measurements to deeper ocean and bio-geochemistry.
AI and Digital Twins: game-changers for Ocean prediction dataArtificial Intelligence (AI) techniques are rapidly advancing ocean prediction capabilities across multiple domains. These innovations range from more accurate modelling with reduced computational costs to better estimates of previously unobserved ocean areas and parameters. (1) Machine learning models are set to improve probabilistic forecasting capacities and enable fast, multi-resolution mapping of ocean conditions. (2) Additionally, digital ocean twins are emerging as transformative technologies that promote collaboration and broaden access to ocean prediction tools.
Societal Benefits and Policy Implications The symposium highlighted the role of ocean prediction in informing policy decisions with actionable scientific insights that support sustainable management. For example, there is a pressing need for new standards in marine heatwave forecasting and monitoring of their impacts on ocean ecosystems. Emerging initiatives on marine carbon dioxide removal also highlight the necessity for robust ocean monitoring systems to effectively confirm greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.
Enhanced International Collaboration The event underscored the importance of structured international collaborations to align science, services, governance, and innovation. The Ocean Decade presents a unique opportunity to establish a framework that advances a sustainable global observing system for the blue, white and green oceans, while enhancing access to ocean prediction data.
Outcomes Theme 1Ocean prediction: past, present and future
Arctic Ocean changes: predictions for additional ocean parameters are needed T,U,V, storm surge, waves, sea ice, bgc, etc.
Arctic Modelling Challenges: small scales of mesoscale dynamics, important sub-mesoscale circulations, ice-wave interactions, sensitivity of ocean-ice-atmosphere heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes in changing marginal ice zone
Observing and modeling salinity is critical due impact of freeze point, stratification, and overturning circulation.
Addressing sea-ice thickness is crucial: influence on freshwater inputs, ocean stratification, heat budget and momentum transfer.
Operational modeling and prediction for the Arctic need to address the blue and green oceans in addition to the white ocean; particularly given increasing ice-free periods and extent and the poleward migration of species due to global warming.
Ensemble forecast benefit: reliability with uncertainty provision and range extension of the predictability compared to deterministic approach = useful for risk assessment and planning
Geoengineering solutions are being explored by industry = Operational ocean community need to engage in evaluating the proposed solutions
There is an increasing discussion on Marine heatwaves, need for exchanges in the community (definition, predictability).
An ensemble of simulations is to assess the mid-century basin and regional climatic trend uncertainty and their impact for ecosystem. Model response uncertainty can be as important as the scenario choice.
Evolution of global basin scale system: toward more coupling, towards ensemble method and hybrid (var + ensemble + AI)
Evolution of coupled system: toward shorter (6h window) in data assimilation to facilitate coupled DA, ensemble method
The scope of this theme is broad and includes many topics on new developments in ocean predictions, such as: measurements/observations, modeling, data assimilation, machine learning/AI, digital twins, etc.
We had more than 100 presentations (talks and posters).
Topics ranged from recent advances in operational systems (adoption of new models such as MOM6 ocean, SI3 sea ice models, increasing resolution/coupling, etc; observations such as SWOT altimeter; new techniques such as wavelet based observing operators; trials with machine learning, etc).
Overall, this theme provided a platform for models, data assimilators (physical, bio-geo-chemical), modelers and observationalists to meet and exchange information/advances/ideas. Further discussion is hoped to happen at a finer level via individual task teams' interaction.
Future recommendations include (not limited to following): increased collaboration across agencies, exchange of information, ideas and possibly datasets, establish and share best practices, encourage participation and involvement from the next generation
Diplomacy for science: "Facilitating International science cooperation" - G7 FSOI (Future of the Seas and Ocean Initiatives)
Science for diplomacy: "Using science cooperation to improve international relations between countries" - UN Ocean Decade for Sustainable Development
Science in diplomacy: "informing policy objectives with scientific advice" - Geo Blue Planet
Example: Inspired by the collective vision of marine debris scientific community, the integrated marine debris observation System (IMDOS) aims to provide coordination and guidance to lead the marine debris community in establishing a sustainable global observing system and facilitating open access to data
Essential role of international partnerships (from observations, predictions to applications and users) to foster advancements of fit for purpose Ocean Prediction capabilities.
Urgent need to strengthen the global ocean observing system to build a sustained and sustainable critical ocean observing infrastructure. Cooperation of space agencies is key to to ensure a long-term satellite ocean observing system. Need to expand activities to assess the impact and support the design of an integrated observing system.
The OceanPrediction DCC now provides the framework to link the different ocean prediction initiatives in the UN Decade and expand these very much needed partnerships. Interactions between OP DCC with the WMO Implementation of Earth System approaches is an opportunity to capitalise on the combined strengths of the ocean, weather, climate communities.
Need to enhance connection between ocean observations, ocean forecasting and applications to answer to societal needs. Future interactions between GEO Blue Planet and OceanPredict/ForeSea in the framework of the OceanPrediction DCC will be key to ensure the development of fit for purpose ocean prediction capabilities
Need a global mobilization all along the ocean information value chain. The UN Ocean Conference (UNOC) will be an opportunity to promote a call for action for this global mobilization building on the outcomes of the OP’24 symposium
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